Kenya Met Predicts Rainfall in 38 Counties This Week

The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA) has forecast rainfall across 38 counties over the next seven days. 

In a weather forecast on Tuesday October 13, KMSA predicted rainfall in Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu and Kilifi. 

The authority also forecast rainfall in Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Lamu, Machakos, Mandera, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Nyamira, Nyandarua and Nyeri counties.

Other counties expected to receive rainfall during the week include Siaya, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and West Pokot.

At the same time, the authority predicted high daytime temperatures exceeding 30°C in parts of Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana Counties. 

Meanwhile Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Nyeri, Trans Nzoia, Taita Taveta and Kajiado Counties will experience old nights, with minimum average temperatures falling below 10°C.

The forecast comes days after KMSA issued a safety advisory following heavy storms in Kisumu County. 

In a statement on Thursday, October 8, the authority urged the public to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions during the current October-December (OND) rainfall season. 

"Heavy storms were experienced in Kisumu East afternoon, 8 October 2026. As we continue through the October-December (OND) rainfall season, the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) reminds the public to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions," read the advisory in part. 

Kenya Met advised the public to stay updated on official weather forecasts and warnings and cautioned against seeking shelter under trees during thunderstorms. 

The authority also urged motorists and pedestrians to avoid crossing flooded roads, waterways, and low-lying areas.

Further, KMSA advised the public to avoid outdoor activities during heavy storms to minimize the risk of harm.

On Sunday the authority clarified that El Niño does not automatically bring heavy rainfall, as questions continue over when the long-awaited rains will arrive. 

In its explainer published on its channels, the authority set out to correct what it described as a common assumption that El Niño simply means more rain in Kenya.

"El Niño refers to unusually warm ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean," it said.

The authority further addressed the belief that a stronger event means heavier rain locally.

"The strength of an El Niño event doesn't directly determine how much rain we receive in Kenya," KMSA said. 

According to the authority, El Niño is only one of several factors that shape the country's rainfall.

"It can work with, or against, other factors (such as the Indian Ocean, winds and weather patterns). Sometimes they reinforce each other, and other times they reduce the impact," it said.

It listed those other drivers as the Indian Ocean, winds, weather systems and local factors. When El Niño combines with them, KMSA said, more rain is likely in some cases, while in others less rain is possible.