Editor's Review
The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast above-average rainfall across more than 30 counties in October 2026.
The Kenya Meteorological Department has forecast above-average rainfall across more than 30 counties in October 2026.
According to the department’s October 2026 monthly forecast issued on Thursday, October 1, above-average rainfall with higher probabilities was likely in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, as well as parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa and Wajir counties.
Above-average rainfall was also expected in Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru, Isiolo, Nyandarua and Nyeri.
The forecast further covered parts of Taita Taveta, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit, Laikipia, Nakuru and Narok counties.
Meanwhile, near-average to above-average rainfall was expected in Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Homa Bay, Kakamega, Kericho, Kisii, Kisumu, Migori, Nandi, Nyamira, Samburu, Siaya, Trans Nzoia, Turkana, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and West Pokot.
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Parts of Narok, Nakuru and Laikipia were also expected to experience near-average to above-average rainfall during the month.
The weather outlook comes as October marks the transition from the cool June-July-August season into the October-November-December short rains season.
"As the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) moves southward across East Africa, temperatures rise across much of the country while humidity and cloud cover begin to increase," the department said.
At the same time, Kenya Met noted that October is generally a warm month, with temperatures varying largely depending on elevation.
The coolest conditions are expected in the highlands, where temperatures generally range between 15°C and 20°C, while the warmest conditions are experienced in arid and semi-arid lowlands, where temperatures can exceed 28°C.
Despite the rainfall outlook, mean temperatures are expected to remain warmer than average across the country during October.
The Kenya Met Department also issued an outlook for the October-November-December 2026 season, forecasting above-average rainfall across a wider area of the country.
The seasonal forecast places Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi, Kirinyaga, Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang’a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta, Tana River, Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga and Wajir among areas expected to receive above-average rainfall.
Much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit counties is also expected to experience above-average rainfall during the three-month season.
Near-average to above-average rainfall is forecast for Turkana and some parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit counties.
The department further projected that mean temperatures would remain warmer than average throughout the October-November-December season, with higher probabilities particularly in Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu, as well as parts of Tana River, Taita Taveta and Garissa counties.
