Kenya Met Predicts Above-Average Rainfall in Over 40 Counties in November

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has predicted above-average rainfall across 46 counties in November 2026. 

In a statement on Saturday, October 31 night, KMSA said November is a key month of the October– November–December short rains season. 

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“November is a key month of the October– November–December short rains season, with rainfall playing an important role in supporting agricultural activities, replenishing water resources and sustaining livelihoods across the country,” the authority said. 

According to KMSA, the evolution, distribution and intensity of rainfall in November is influenced by large-scale climate drivers. 

These include the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), intra-seasonal atmospheric systems. 

Counties expected to experience above-average rainfall during the month include: Baringo, Bomet, Bungoma, Busia, Elgeyo Marakwet, Embu, Garissa, Homa Bay, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kakamega, Kericho, Kiambu, Kilifi and Kirinyaga. 

Others are Kisii, Kisumu, Kitui, Kwale, Laikipia, Lamu, Machakos, Makueni, Mandera, Meru, Migori, Mombasa, Murang'a, Nairobi, Nakuru, Nandi, Narok, Nyamira, Nyandarua, Nyeri, Siaya, Taita Taveta and Tana River. 

Tharaka-Nithi, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Vihiga, Wajir and much of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit Counties will also experience above-average rainfall. 

At the same time, KMSA announced that November will generally be a warm month across the country. 

The authority noted that mean temperatures will vary considerably with elevation and geographical location. 

“The coolest conditions are generally expected over the highlands, where mean temperatures range between 15°C and 20°C, while the arid and semi-arid lowlands are likely to experience warmer conditions, with mean temperatures exceeding 28°C,” KMSA added. 

Further the authority warned that the increased rainfall in November may create favorable conditions for mosquito breeding raising the risk of malaria transmission. 

The weatherman also warned of a high risk of flash floods, riverine flooding, landslides and damage to infrastructure. 

“Areas at heightened risk include low-lying coastal regions, flood-prone river basins, urban centers with inadequate drainage systems and steep highland areas susceptible to soil erosion and landslides. 

“These hazards may disrupt transport, damage property, affect livelihoods and threaten human safety,” KMSA stated. 

This comes a week after KMSA warned of heavy rainfall exceeding 20mm within 24 hours across 45 counties. 

In a weather forecast on Sunday, October 25, KMSA said the heavy rainfall will be accompanied by gusty winds, with strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots in coastal, eastern and northern regions.

“Moderate to heavy rainfall exceeding 20 mm within 24 hours is anticipated over the counties in Coast, Northeastern, Highlands West and East of the Rift Valley, the Central Highlands (including some parts of Nairobi) and parts of the Southeastern Lowlands.

“The rainfall is likely to be accompanied by gusty winds and strong southerly to southeasterly winds exceeding 25 knots (12.5 m/s) over coastal, eastern and northern regions,” read the forecast in part.