Editor's Review

54 per cent of Kenyans also expressed that they do not support the current Broad-Based Government framework.

A poll by TIFA Research shows that many Kenyans believe former Prime Minister Raila Odinga will part ways with President William Ruto ahead of the 2027 General Election.

In the poll that was released on Wednesday, May 28, 28 per cent of Kenyans surveyed predicted that Raila would rejoin the opposition and contest for the presidency.

Another 18 per cent of those surveyed predicted that he would rejoin the opposition and support another candidate for the presidency.

Only 23 per cent of those surveyed predicted that the ODM boss would back the reelection of Ruto.

Meanwhile, 14 per cent indicated that the former premier would opt to retire and not participate in the upcoming General Election.

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File image of opposition leaders in Nyeri County.

"Almost a majority of all Kenyans expect him to rejoin the opposition, whether he contests himself (28%) or supports another candidate against Ruto (18% - making a total of 46%)," read the report in part.

"Indeed, even more than one-third of Broad Based Government (BBG) supporters expect that he will have turned his back on the current BBG arrangement by rejoining the opposition, whether he contests or not (13% + 25% = 38%). For their part, only slightly more than half of those opposed to the BBG believe he will have rejoined the Opposition by 2027, whether or not he actually contests the presidency yet again (22% + 31% = 53%)."

Support for Broad-Based Government

Additionally, TIFA Research asked Kenyans whether they support the government. 54 per cent of Kenyans expressed that they do not support the current framework.

25 per cent of Kenyans noted that they do not have any opinion, while 22 per cent indicated that they support the government, which was formed after the Gen Z protests.

"Across the country, support for the BBG is highest in the President’s home zone of the Central Rift (37%) and lowest in the Mt. Kenya and the Lower Eastern zones, the home areas of his former/impeached DP Rigathi Gachagua and Azimio/ODM leader Kalonzo Musyoka, respectively (13% and 12%)," read the research in part.

"Evidently, a reflection of former Prime Minister Odinga’s now-cordial relations with the Kenya Kwanza government and the presence of several senior ODM figures within it, residents of Nyanza give the BBG its third-highest level of support in regional terms."