The government has issued a malaria epidemic warning for parts of Western Kenya following a new forecast released jointly by the Kenya Meteorological Department, the Ministry of Health, and the Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI).
In a statement on Wednesday, November 5, Kenya Met said the early warning comes from a new predictive system designed to monitor and anticipate potential malaria outbreaks in highland regions.
The report indicates that Kakamega County is at high risk of a malaria epidemic between November and December 2025, while Kisii and Nandi counties are not under immediate threat.
"Kenya Met Department in collaboration with the Ministry of Health and Kenya Medical Research Institute (KEMRI), has released the Malaria Epidemic Early Warning Prediction System for the Western Kenya Highlands, covering Kakamega, Kisii, and Nandi Counties," the statement read.
Kenya Met explained that the predictive system uses real-time environmental and climate data to determine potential malaria surges.
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"This data-driven system integrates climate and environmental indicators, including temperature and rainfall trends, to forecast the likelihood of malaria epidemics and support early health action," the statement added.
Kenya Met noted that the results are critical in helping local governments and health partners take timely preventive action.
"The results emphasize how climate information can strengthen health preparedness, allowing local health authorities and communities to plan preventive measures, distribute mosquito nets, enhance awareness, and prepare health facilities before peak transmission periods," the statement further read.
This comes two days after Kenya Met predicted that rainfall will continue across seven regions in the country this week.
In a weather forecast on Monday, November 3, the Met Department announced that the rainfall would be experienced in the Central Highlands, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, and Coastal regions.
The South-Eastern Lowlands, Western, and North-Eastern regions are also expected to receive downpours.
"Rainfall is expected to continue across several parts of the country, most notably in the Central Highlands, Lake Victoria Basin, Rift Valley, Coastal region, South-Eastern Lowlands, Western, and North-Eastern Kenya," read the forecast in part.
The weatherman noted that in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley, sunny intervals are expected in the mornings, with light rainfall likely in a few areas.
In the afternoons, showers and thunderstorms are expected in some places during the first half of the forecast period, increasing to several areas later in the week.
At night, partly cloudy conditions are expected, though occasional showers may occur in a few locations.
In the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, which includes Nairobi and Kiambu counties, mornings are likely to be cloudy, with occasional rains over a few places, giving way to sunny intervals.
In the afternoon, showers are likely to occur over a few places during the first half of the forecast period, increasing to several places thereafter, while the nights are expected to be partly cloudy.
At the same time, Kenya Met Department announced that maximum daytime temperatures above 30°C are expected in the Coast, North-Eastern, North-Western Kenya, and in parts of the South-Eastern Lowlands and Western Kenya.
Meanwhile, the Central Highlands, Central Rift Valley, and areas around Mt. Kilimanjaro are expected to experience night-time minimum temperatures of below 10°C.
