The Kenya Meteorological Department has released its May 2026 weather outlook, projecting a mix of rainfall patterns across the country.
The forecast released on Friday, May 1, indicated that much of the country will record near-average rainfall, although parts of Northeastern Kenya could see above-average levels.
Meanwhile, the Southeastern lowlands and sections of the same northeastern region are likely to receive below-average rainfall.
The agency notes that rainfall is expected to intensify during the first week of May due to the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is predicted to be in a favourable phase.
This could extend into the second week in some areas before a general reduction in rainfall is observed in the latter half of the month.
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In the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, and the Rift Valley counties, including Nandi, Kakamega, Uasin-Gishu, Kisumu, and Narok, rainfall is projected to be near-average, with heavy downpours expected in the first half of May.
Similar conditions are forecast for northwestern counties such as Turkana and Samburu.
The Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, Nyeri, and Kiambu, are also likely to receive near-average rainfall, although eastern parts of Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, and Embu may record slightly lower levels.
In Northeastern Kenya, Mandera and northern parts of Wajir and Marsabit could experience above-average rainfall, while other areas register lower totals.
In contrast, the Southeastern lowlands, covering Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, and Kajiado, are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, except in parts of western Kajiado.
The Coastal region, including Mombasa and Kilifi, is forecast to record near-average rainfall with occasional heavy showers early in the month.
The forecast also outlines potential impacts across key sectors, particularly agriculture, as heavy rainfall persists in several regions.
"Continued heavy rainfall over the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and the Rift Valley is likely to worsen waterlogging, flooding of croplands, and physical damage to crops, while also increasing soil erosion and nutrient leaching," Kenya Met noted.
In the Southeastern lowlands and parts of Northeastern Kenya, the report warns that uneven rainfall distribution may result in inconsistent soil moisture, potentially stressing crops already affected by earlier rains.
Water resources are also expected to come under pressure, especially in flood-prone areas, as rivers and dams continue to receive significant inflows following the wet conditions experienced in April.
"Expected heavy rainfall in the first week of May increases the likelihood of river overflows, flash floods and prolonged inundation in low-lying and downstream areas. In contrast, regions expecting near-average to below-average rainfall may see only modest improvement in surface and groundwater availability," the agency added.
Meanwhile, transport and infrastructure could face disruptions, particularly in high-rainfall regions, where damaged roads and bridges may worsen due to continued downpours.
Flooded roads and underpasses are also likely to cause delays and isolate some communities.
The health sector is equally at risk, with authorities warning of increased exposure to water-borne diseases and mosquito-borne illnesses as stagnant water accumulates.
"Flood-affected settlements may face increased exposure to diarrhoeal diseases, cholera and malaria due to standing water and poor sanitation," Kenya Met warned.
Disaster management agencies have also been put on alert as the threat of floods and landslides remains high, particularly in vulnerable regions already impacted by heavy rains.
"Emergency response systems may experience prolonged strain due to repeated incidents rather than isolated events, particularly in high-rainfall zones. In areas where near-average to below-average rainfall is expected, localized heavy storms may still trigger sudden emergencies despite otherwise moderate monthly totals," the agency further said.
