Kenya Met Releases August Forecast as Dry Conditions Persist in Many Regions

The Kenya Meteorological Department has released its August 2026 weather outlook, forecasting generally sunny and dry conditions across large parts of the country, with below-average rainfall expected in several regions and warmer-than-normal temperatures likely nationwide.

According to the forecast issued on Monday, August 3, much of Kenya will continue experiencing dry weather during August, with only a few areas expected to receive occasional rainfall.

The department warned that the prolonged dry spell could worsen water shortages in arid and semi-arid areas and affect agricultural production.

Counties expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall include Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, Vihiga, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Kisumu, Kericho, and Nyamira. 

Others are Kisii, Bomet, Migori, Homa Bay, Nakuru, Lamu, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale, and parts of Narok, West Pokot, Baringo and Tana River. 

Isolated heavy rainfall events may occur in a few locations despite the generally dry outlook.

Meanwhile, Turkana, Samburu and parts of West Pokot, Elgeyo Marakwet and Baringo counties are forecast to receive below-average rainfall, while Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Garissa, Taita Taveta, Kajiado and parts of Narok and Tana River are expected to remain largely sunny and dry throughout the month. 

Residents of Nairobi and several Central and Eastern counties, including Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Machakos, Makueni and Kitui, should expect intermittent cool and cloudy conditions accompanied by occasional rainfall, morning drizzle and fog. 

Despite the cool conditions in some highland regions, the department projects mean temperatures to remain warmer than average across the entire country, with the most significant temperature anomalies expected in Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo, Turkana and Samburu counties.

The forecast indicates that maximum temperatures could reach up to 37°C in parts of Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, while minimum temperatures in some central highland counties may fall as low as 5°C. 

Coastal counties including Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Kwale are expected to record maximum temperatures between 26°C and 31°C.

KMD has also warned of strong southerly and south-easterly winds exceeding 25 knots in parts of Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, Isiolo, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Tana River, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta and the coastal counties of Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi and Lamu. 

The winds could disrupt marine transport and damage infrastructure such as roofs and power lines.

Elsewhere, in its sectoral assessment, the department said the anticipated dry conditions may support harvesting activities in parts of western Kenya and the Rift Valley. 

However, food, water, pasture and browse shortages remain a concern due to crop losses linked to dry conditions experienced in previous months.

The agency further warned that fog in highland areas could reduce visibility on roads and occasionally disrupt operations at Wilson Airport and Jomo Kenyatta International Airport. 

Cool temperatures may also contribute to increased cases of respiratory illnesses such as asthma, pneumonia, flu and the common cold, particularly in Nairobi and the central highlands. 

Lightning strikes remain a risk in Kisii, Kericho, Kisumu, Nandi, Kakamega and parts of Bungoma County, while declining water levels in key catchment areas around Mt. Kenya, the Mau Escarpment and Mt. Elgon could negatively affect hydroelectric power generation.

Looking beyond August, Kenya Met forecasts that much of the country will remain dry through September before scattered rainfall develops in October. 

Western Kenya, parts of the Rift Valley and northern counties such as Turkana and Samburu are expected to record below-average rainfall during the August-September-October period. 

In contrast, parts of the Coast, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Mandera, Wajir and Marsabit are likely to receive above-average rainfall, most of it occurring in October. 

The department also noted that July 2026 was generally drier than normal across most of the country, with only a handful of counties, including Busia, Siaya, Vihiga, Kisumu, Kericho, Kisii, Nyamira, Bomet, Homa Bay, Migori, Nyandarua and Nairobi, recording near-average to above-average rainfall. 

Kisii Meteorological Station recorded the highest monthly rainfall total at 152 millimetres, while stations in Marsabit, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera and Makueni recorded no rainfall during the review period.