Kenya Met Issues June-August Seasonal Weather Forecast [Details]

The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released its seasonal weather outlook for the June-July-August period.

In a statement on Monday, June 1, the department forecasted near-average to below-average rainfall across several parts of the country, warmer-than-normal temperatures in most regions, and strong winds in parts of eastern and northern Kenya.

Kenya Met said rainfall patterns during the three-month period are expected to vary across the country, with the Coast emerging as one of the few regions likely to receive enhanced rainfall. 

"The outlook indicates that near-average to below-average rainfall is likely to occur in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and Northwestern Kenya.

"The Coast is expected to receive near-average to above-average rainfall," the department said.

The department noted that the Highlands East of the Rift Valley are likely to experience light rains, while the South-eastern Lowlands and Northeastern Kenya are expected to remain largely sunny and dry throughout the season.

According to Kenya Met, counties in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, and Rift Valley, including Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, and Narok are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall.

"Intermittent dry spells are expected throughout the season," the department warned.

In northwestern Kenya, covering Turkana and Samburu counties, sunny and dry conditions are expected to dominate, although some areas could receive near-average to below-average rainfall.

The Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Laikipia, and Nyandarua counties, are forecast to receive light rainfall accompanied by fog.

Meanwhile, Northeastern Kenya, comprising Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo counties, is expected to remain largely sunny and dry, with occasional light rains and fog over elevated areas.

Similar conditions are expected in the South-eastern Lowlands, including Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, and inland parts of Tana River County.

For the Coast region, encompassing Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu, Kwale, and the Tana Delta, rainfall is projected to be near-average to above-average, although intermittent dry spells are still expected.

The department has also forecast above-normal temperatures across most parts of the country during the June-August season.

"Warmer than average temperatures are expected over the whole country, with increased probabilities over the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, the Coast, the North-western and North-eastern Kenya," KMD stated.

However, residents in parts of the Highlands East and West of the Rift Valley, sections of the South-eastern Lowlands, the Rift Valley, and Marsabit County should expect cool, cloudy conditions and occasional fog.

KMD noted that June, July, and August are typically the coolest months of the year in Kenya, with average temperatures ranging from about 16°C in the central highlands to around 30°C in northwestern Kenya.

Elsewhere, the department warned of strong southerly, south-easterly and easterly winds exceeding 25 knots (12.86 metres per second) in some parts of the Coast, South-eastern Lowlands, Northeastern and Northwestern Kenya.

According to KMD, the winds will result from the interaction between regional monsoon circulation systems and local topography, including the Turkana Channel.

KMD said the expected rainfall patterns are likely to support agricultural activities in some regions, particularly following the generally favourable March-April-May long-rains season.

"Near-average to below-average rainfall in the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and North-western Kenya are expected to sustain agricultural production following the near-average to above-average rainfall received in March to May," the department said.

The Coast is also expected to benefit from additional soil moisture due to the forecast rainfall.

However, cool and cloudy conditions could delay crop maturity, while strong winds in eastern Kenya may damage crops and increase moisture loss through evapotranspiration.

The department warned that reduced rainfall in major catchment areas could affect water availability.

"Near-average to below-average rainfall in major catchment areas such as the Lake Victoria Basin and Rift Valley may lower river flows, groundwater recharge, and reservoir levels," KMD said.