ODM Party Leader Oburu Oginga Linda Ground faction is less popular among ODM supporters than Linda Mwananchi.
According to a TIFA poll released on Thursday, May 14, 73 percent of ODM supporters prefer the faction led by embattled Secretary General Edwin Sifuna.
The Linda Ground faction has only the backing of 24 per cent of ODM members, while 3 per cent remain undecided on which faction to support.
"ODM supporters appear to favour a more independent, people-centred opposition approach rather than closer cooperation with the government.
"The strong backing for the 'Linda Mwananchi' faction suggests growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived as defending public interests and holding government accountable," TIFA Research explained.
Read More
Senator Oburu further faces a new challenge after the poll revealed that ODM's popularity in the country dropped significantly from the last election cycle.
As of May 2026, ODM enjoyed the support of only 18 percent of Kenyans, a drop from 32 percent in August 2022. The broad-based government partners, UDA, also saw a decrease in support from 38 percent in August 2022 to 17 percent in May 2026.
Notably, the number of Kenyans who support the broad-based government dropped in the last six months, while those who opposed the arrangement increased.
"TIFA's last four surveys reveal that while support for the BBG is higher than it was a year ago, the increase in its support seen over the previous two surveys (from 22% to 29% and then 44%) has now dropped, nearly returning to its modest August 2025 level (30% vs. 29%).
"The proportion of those expressing opposition to it has conversely increased since TIFA's November survey (from 48% to 56%)," the report read in part
Nonetheless, ODM overtook UDA to become the party with the largest share of supporters, followed by UDA, then the Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP).
The party led by former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has increased in popularity from 6 percent in November 2025 to 16 percent in May 2026.
