The Ministry of Agriculture has warned that Kenya is edging closer to a food crisis as worsening drought, widening rice shortages, and emerging price instability threaten household food security.
In a statement on Tuesday, January 6, Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe said rice has become a critical pressure point because of its growing role as a staple food in urban areas and arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) counties.
"Kenya is edging closer to a food crisis as drought disrupts production, rice supply gaps widen, and prices begin to wobble. With rice now a key staple in urban and ASAL households, falling domestic output and erratic rainfall are already fuelling volatility and threatening a broader food inflation wave that could hit maize and other essentials," the statement read.
Kagwe explained that Kenya’s reliance on imported rice remains high, with local production meeting only a fraction of national demand.
According to the ministry, the projected supply gap is expected to widen sharply in early 2026 as consumption peaks in the first half of the year.
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"Kenya produces less than 20% of the rice it consumes. By early 2026, the deficit is projected to exceed 380,000MT, with demand between January and June alone estimated at 750,000MT," the statement added.
Kagwe further warned that existing domestic stocks are insufficient to absorb the deficit, placing vulnerable populations at heightened risk.
He noted that without timely interventions, food insecurity in ASAL regions could escalate significantly.
"Local stocks cannot fill this gap. Meanwhile, acute food insecurity in ASAL counties could surge from 1.8M to 3.5M people if interventions stall," the statement further read.
With the concern coming as the High Court weighs a challenge to the government's decision to allow limited, duty-free rice imports, Kagwe noted that the court’s decision will have far-reaching implications for food affordability.
"Against this backdrop, the High Court is considering a challenge to the Government’s move to allow time-bound, duty-free rice imports to stabilise supply and prices. The ruling, due on 29 January 2026, will carry real consequences for food prices, household budgets, and the constitutional right to food at a moment when delay risks turning climate stress into a full-blown hunger crisis," the statement concluded.
Elsewhere, this comes months after the ministry announced that it is working with the National Treasury on a plan to lease the Pyrethrum Processing Company of Kenya (PPCK).
This emerged as Kagwe appeared before the Senate plenary on Wednesday, November 19, to respond to questions on the decline of the once-thriving sector.
He told the Senate that his ministry is pursuing the leasing of the company, arguing that it is the only viable path to stabilising and growing the enterprise.
The probe was triggered by concerns raised by Kisumu Senator Prof. Tom Ojienda who sought clarity on the status of pyrethrum farming, market prospects and the future of the sub-sector.
Kagwe defended the government’s approach and noted that ongoing reforms were gradually restoring confidence in the industry, which was once one of Kenya’s top foreign-exchange earners.
He explained that Homa Bay County does not meet the ecological thresholds required for pyrethrum cultivation.
"Homa Bay County is not a pyrethrum-growing zone since the climatic conditions are not favourable," he said, detailing altitude, rainfall and temperature conditions that fall below the crop’s required standards.
Kagwe noted that the county government had confirmed this position in a letter dated May 28, 2025.
