The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released the March-April-May (MAM) 2026 Long Rains Seasonal Climate Outlook.
In an update on Wednesday, February 4, the department outlined expectations of mixed rainfall performance across the country alongside generally warmer-than-average temperatures.
According to KMD, the upcoming long rains season is likely to be characterized by near-average to below-average rainfall over several parts of the country, with notable variability in onset, distribution, and intensity.
While some regions are expected to receive relatively favorable rainfall, others may experience suppressed totals and intermittent dry spells that could affect livelihoods and key economic sectors.
In its regional assessment, the department indicated that near- to above-average rainfall is expected over the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, the Rift Valley, and parts of north-western Kenya.
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KMD cautioned, however, that even in these regions, rainfall may not be evenly distributed, and isolated heavy rainfall events could occur.
For the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), including the south-eastern lowlands, north-eastern Kenya, and parts of the north-west, the outlook points to near-average to below-average rainfall.
The department noted that rainfall in these areas is likely to be poorly distributed, with breaks in between rainy episodes.
This pattern could negatively affect crop production, pasture regeneration, and water availability if mitigation measures are not put in place early.
The coastal region is projected to experience below-average rainfall during the MAM 2026 season.
Counties including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, and Lamu, as well as coastal parts of the Tana River Delta, fall within this zone.
Despite the overall outlook of reduced rainfall totals, KMD notes that isolated heavy rainfall events may still occur, particularly later in the season.
The department further indicates that peak rainfall along the Coast is expected in May, later than in most other parts of the country, where April is projected to be the wettest month.
On the overall characteristics of the season, KMD reports that the onset of the long rains is expected to be normal to late in many areas, while rainfall distribution is likely to range from poor to fair across several regions.
"The season is projected to have a generally poor to fair temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across several areas, with intermittent dry spells, though isolated heavy rainfall events may occur," Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward Muriuki said.
In addition to rainfall patterns, the department has warned of elevated temperatures across the country during the March–May period.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected nationwide, a trend that could heighten heat-related risks, particularly in ASAL areas, coastal counties, and densely populated urban centres.
KMD noted that higher temperatures may exacerbate water stress, increase the risk of heat-related illnesses, and place additional pressure on energy and health systems.
KMD has advised members of the public and sectoral stakeholders to use the seasonal outlook to guide planning and preparedness efforts.
The department said the forecast is relevant for agriculture and food security planning, water resources management, public health preparedness, energy production and demand management, transport and infrastructure resilience, disaster risk management, and urban and community planning.
This comes days after Kenya Met outlined how heat waves will be identified in the Kenyan context, providing clearer guidance for public health authorities and urban residents.
In a statement on Sunday, February 1, Kenya Met explained that, locally, a heat wave is not defined by a single hot day but by a sustained period of unusually high temperatures that pose measurable health risks to the population.
"In the Kenyan context, a heat wave is defined as a period of three or more consecutive days of extremely high daytime temperatures that exceed locally determined thresholds and are associated with increased health risks," the statement read.
The department noted that specific temperature thresholds have been established for Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa, based on extensive analysis of historical temperature records and health data from these cities.
"Based on research using Kenya Meteorological Department temperature records and health data from major urban centres, the proposed thresholds for issuing heat-health alerts are Nairobi: daily maximum temperature of 32°C or higher for three or more consecutive days; Kisumu: daily maximum temperature of 37°C or higher for three or more consecutive days; and Mombasa: daily maximum temperature of 36°C or higher for three or more consecutive days," the statement added.
Kenya Met noted that these benchmarks are not arbitrary, explaining that they are closely linked to observed increases in heat-related illnesses and deaths.
"These thresholds reflect local climate conditions and observed links between high temperatures and increased hospital visits, admissions, and mortality. When exceeded, they can be used to trigger heat-health action plans and emergency response measures, particularly to protect vulnerable populations in Kenya’s major urban centres," the statement concluded.
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