The Kenya Sugar Board has attributed potential sugar price increases to a challenging production cycle that began in 2025 and has extended into early 2026, even as it assures consumers that supply remains secure.
According to a statement by the Kenya Sugar Board, national sugar production declined to 613,000 metric tonnes in 2025, meeting only 51% of the 1.2 million MT domestic demand. This represents a significant drop from the previous year's output of 815,000 MT; a 25% decrease that officials say was anticipated as the industry underwent major structural reforms.
The Board explained that the reduced output resulted from multiple factors rather than a single cause, combining weather challenges, strategic protection of future cane crops, and structural industry reforms aimed at long-term sustainability.
A substantial portion of the 2024 harvest depleted mature cane stocks, leaving much of the 2025 crop in developmental stages. This required the temporary closure of seven sugar factories in the Lower Eastern and Western regions to allow cane to reach optimal maturity, ensuring higher sucrose content and protecting farmers' future income.
Four state-owned sugar factories were initially closed to facilitate leasing to private investors. These facilities then underwent extensive renovations and rehabilitation costing approximately Ksh 12.5 billion, resulting in a roughly 9-month reduction in milling capacity. Kwale Sugar also remained non-operational during 2025, though these measures are expected to modernize the industry and secure reliable future production.
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Dry spells in key growing zones during late 2025 and early 2026 slowed cane development, reduced tonnage per hectare, and affected factory throughput, temporarily increasing production pressure.
Official KNBS statistics show that production fell from 758,302 tonnes in the corresponding period of the previous year.
The reduction in sugar output corresponds with decreased raw material availability, as sugarcane deliveries to factories dropped 27.1% to 6.3 million tonnes, down from 8.7 million tonnes in 2024.
"The challenges of late 2025 and early 2026 are real, but they are temporary. The reforms are permanent," the statement read. "The assurance to Kenyans is clear: sugar supply will remain stable as the industry completes its recovery."
Currently, sugar prices in Kenya vary by brand, ranging from KSh155 to KSh200 per kilogram.
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